From the start, the Obama Administration wanted a political solution for Syria in which the opposition and Assad can form a government of unity to stop the violence. Efforts for a political solution will fail.
Assad bulked at the notion of a Trojan horse. Every maneuver under which the West helped the FSA has been towards pressuring Assad to accept a political solution. Ergo, an accommodation with the opposition.
Assad, for his part, used his speeches and interviews since March 15, 2011 to send the signal loud and clear that he has no intention to comply.
On the opposition side, the US State Department has marginalized any leader or group that refused the very same notion of political unity.
Any Efforts for a Political Solution Will Fail
This has been going on for some time until the Islamists started going to Hajj, or Heaven, via Damascus. All courtesy of the financial aid Saudi Arabia provided.
The US State Department, then, hit the panic button.
A new plan to accelerate the process needed a boost. This came in the form of a re-make of the Syrian opposition the US State Department helped create. It did so using fake oppositionists clearly more in the Assad camp than the opposition camp. It meant Secretary Clinton had to make more trips to Moscow. However, we believe, any efforts for a political solution will fail.
To this day, the holdouts remain the Muslim Brotherhood and other like-minded organizations supported by the Syrian people. The MB refuses to accept bedding with the butcher of Damascus; simultaneously it plays the harp when meeting with the West to keep Qatar’s support flowing.
After all the savagery Assad demonstrated, Obama is rewarding him by seeking a political accommodation. Forget Assad removal as Barack Obama said on countless times “Assad must go”. Obama, now, seeks Assad continued control through a flawed power sharing strategy. With more Sunni control of a future Syrian Government, the Hezbollah problem becomes more manageable and Iran will get busy trying to regain what it lost.
Efforts for a Political Solution Will Fail
The plan will not work, and here is our two cents on this matter.
- Even if new Syrian opposition leaders are installed or bribed to accept a political solution, those who hold the guns, inside Syria, decide the outcome.
- Even if Gulf bribes are starting to flow to some commanders on the ground, they are either fooling the West into believing they will stop fighting or they continue fighting and claim they need more money to stop their fighters (i.e. Switch and bait).
- Even if plans to bribe the commanders on the ground are successful, some elements, like Jabhat al-Nusra, will not stop fighting for any reason. Syrians already feel protected by JAN. The terror group, enjoying this popularity, is not about to turn on its Muslim humanitarian principles to accommodate a Western plan from countries it does not trust.
- Even if the US somehow gains leverage over JAN using proxy countries, Obama’s weakness has emboldened the private funders in Saudi Arabia who know well America is leaving the region between them and Iran. If Iran is still playing with fire with no consequences, damned if they do not duplicate. Support for JAN will continue unabated.
- Even if the Obama Administration is relying on Assad’s level of violence, it refuses to control, and the above elements to force the population-at-large to accept its solution, this is where it gets tricky. We believe this is forced upon the Syrian people against their will. We did not see any intelligence the Syrian backed Obama’s plan. That is a large gap turning the logic of a political solution to look like a sieve holding water.
- Even if there are efforts underway to peg the FSA against JAN to fight each other, for the most part, fighters affiliated with the FSA are unwilling to fight a group the Syrian people see as their saviors. Could the commanders on the ground be using makeshift basements for the manufacture of blank bullets for that purpose?
Efforts for a Political Solution Will Fail
The lethal mistake Barack Obama made is in calling for “Assad must go”. Without doing anything to follow-thru with any meaningful deed. The Syrian people are not about to forget Obama’s weakness. Efforts for a political solution will fail.
Giving blankets and tents to dislodged Syrians will not lure them. Nor will any press releases by US State Department remunerating their humanitarian good deeds. The last part is something Foggy Bottom should be proud of.
Maybe some realize this mistake, but so far, those in control of policy do not.