In watching the Syrian civil war unfold over the last 2 years, one discerns a pattern and a nuance to diplomatic maneuvers and operators, which may seem puzzling and incomprehensible but in fact follow a very clear path. Observation, over time, solves the most difficult of puzzles. It is like murder on the Orient Express.
To perpetuate a war, you need three factors to align perfectly just like "Murder on the Orient Express" of Agatha Christie. For those fascinated with pyramidology, it is like the three middle stars of the constellation Orion aligned perfectly with the Pyramids of Giza.
The first factor is Diplomacy Based on Lies (DIBALI), the most necessary of strategies to keep the buzz where it needs to be as diplomats and policymakers operate in the dark elsewhere.
The second factor is Willing Actors and Operators (WACOS), whose cooperation is essential. All US allies, with the exception of Israel, are playing the role of WACOS in Syria in their own ways and rights, including the Arab League.
The third factor is Plans to Suspend (PLATOS), which sets in motion the policy and the action necessary to suspend the war in Syria in mid-air.
Here is a very small list of facts that merge one or two more factors to perpetuate the Syrian civil war.
- President Obama, a central figure in this special edition of "Murder on the Orient Express", has protected his brother Assad, nicknamed the butcher of Damascus. Everything else you read or hear is just plain DIBALI.
- Obama has refused to set a humanitarian corridor in Syria or to arm the rebels because it may help with more defections from the Assad army. Any policy that would protect the Syrian civilian population from a certain death is counter-productive to Obama's central policy of helping Assad remain in power. It certainly perpetuates the notion that "Murder on the Orient Express" is Obama's goal.
- The rise of Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN) to tip the balance against Assad sets the Obama administration into panic mode. Obama put JAN on the "Murder on the Orient Express" train and overnight, he secured JAN a place on the list of terrorist organizations and possibly in the Guinness World Records book. Nothing happens that fast in Washington. We cannot imagine how many calls Obama made to get it done that quickly.
- The Obama policy of non-interference in Syria is a DIBALI. Behind the scenes, Obama is ordering all US allies not to dispatch any weapons to the Syrian rebels that would enable it to win the war against Assad (First-hand Intelligence).
- All foreign experts' real missions in Syria are to contain and locate WMD and to insure rebels cannot access any weapons it can win the war with. The training is just a DIBALI cover for a PLATOS.
- The US State Department proudly boasts of its aid package to Syria only for the world to find out that most of the $385m the US taxpayers donated went instead to organizations controlled by Assad. Only creators of DIBALI can double down on a DIBALI.
- Assad mixed some chemicals openly and used Agent 15 that killed four Syrians. Secretary Clinton rushed to Moscow to strike an agreement with her counterpart FM Lavrov based on “No NATO Interference in Syria” in return for “Assad Uses No WMD”. Two WACOS using DIBALI to PLATOS Syria. The world, of course, saw a necessary humanitarian effort when in fact the real aim was the “No NATO Interference” Obama can hide behind it.
- Qatar facilitated the arms shipments by Libya to Syria, but stripped the weapons at Doha airport from all surface-to-air shoulder carried missiles able to down the MIG jets (FSA intelligence). Qatar is a tiny WACOS aiming to PLATOS Syria.
- The Kurds have a feu vert to carve Syria. Just listen to the thunderous international outrage over their carving already completed to realize it may be part of perpetuating the Syrian civil war. Turkey, a WACOS in its own right from the beginning, was WACOED in this instance. Erdogan was busy playing the Kingmaker of foot soldiers (Syrian oppositionists) but forgot that others were playing the Kingmakers of Generals (Implementers of strategies).
- The Arab League wants to help the Syrian people when in fact all it cares about is defeating Iran. One WACOS practicing DIBALI to PLATOS Syria until Iran and Hezbollah get weaker through attrition.
- Israel is preparing for the worst, which in its dictionary means either the survival of Assad or the take-over by hardcore Islamists. Its Iron Dome protection can afford her to remain out of everyone's DIBALI, play no role as a WACOS, or help PLATOS Syria. If Arabs cannot accept Israel in their midst, why should Israel help any Arabs by interfering directly or indirectly. All Syrian oppositionists get tongue-tied when told of this simple logic.
How long will the Syrian civil war last? We say until either Assad wins or more carving takes place. There is no room for any other option considering the facts above. Syria is Murder on the Orient Express on a grand scale.