As the Obama Administration reaches a point when it can no longer plan for any long-term or medium-term policies of empowering Iranian terror, the three major powers in the Middle East region must plan to isolate Iran in Syria.
This means Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Turkey must come together to discuss their interests for Syria’s future. Leaving Syria to chance by seeking more confrontation against each other or letting Russia dictate the tempo for too long is not in the best interests of the parties. Even Israel knows that Putin cannot be trusted.
Israeli role would be to protect and secure the minorities to include the inherent rights of the Orthodox Church in Syria. Turkey and Saudi roles would be to appease the world that a Sunni-led Syria will not be a threat to any of the regional or international countries. This means that only moderate Sunnis can lead, like Riad Hijab, and the Muslim Brotherhood can only play a minor role given its history of religious antagonism and enmity towards Israel. Qatar would have to be persuaded to cut all financial ties with the MB for this plan to work.
Within the context of this agreement, repatriating the Syrian refugees Europe is concerned about, fighting ISIS and all other terrorists, long-term peace with Israel, and re-building Syria with help from Saudi, Turkish, and Israeli companies, as well as Kurdish aspirations for independence, will all be addressed in order to compel each country to work together to isolate Iran in Syria. As Armenians live in many countries as well as in Armenia, the Kurds, even with a new small independent country, can choose to remain indigenous. Turkey does not fear their movement, rather the carving of its lands.
What about Russia, you ask? If the Orthodox Church is protected from any harm and the new leadership in Syria is willing to confront terror with the same determination, Russia would yield to such a plan if it also includes Saudi Arabia cutting oil production to raise oil prices and Saudi help to accord Russian companies contracts to re-build Syria. Everyone now has an interest in a new Syria except Iran and Hezbollah.
Obama would veto such a plan, of course, because it limits Iranian terror, and the CIA may torpedo any effort to bypass their domineering position in the region. But not if its implementation would come around the US election cycle when Obama’s abilities to confront it will be limited. The last three months of his presidency Obama is going to be too busy with finalizing his domestic agenda and laying the ground work to harm Republican aspirations aimed at rewinding America to the pre-Obama times to pay attention to the Middle East.
It is totally unrealistic to expect the region to survive ISIS and whomever comes after if the three regional powers do not agree on an agenda to protect their interests and those of the West in one comprehensive agreement. Their common enemy in Iran is not standing still. The longer Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel wait, the more damage Iran is going to cause.
Who is to lead such an effort becomes a matter of agreeing on a personality that is respected by all parties.
Agree today or face more destruction that could only mean one thing: More terror that could get out of hand the way ISIS did. Plan to isolate Iran in Syria and the region would see better and less violent times.
Syria’s carving will not stop terror. It will increase it.