The single most important event over the last week was not the suspension of the Assad regime by the Arab League, nor was it the initiative by the European Bank to sanction more Syrian individuals responsible for crimes against humanity, but rather it was the bold pronouncement of King Abdullah of Jordan asking Assad to step down.
If there is any one Arab figure who is deep in the know (Unlike others who claim but know little), it is the Jordanian Monarch.Â
For an Arab ruler whose borders juxtapose ours and whose intelligence services are a match to some of the best in the world, his statement was like the last nail in Assad’s coffin.Â
If Assad is worried, he should be. King Abdullah just assured the Syrians that his end is near.Â
But the dynamics behind the scenes are not as fluid as we think. Even if the US demands Assad’s departure, there are many world leaders who have reservations about how, when, and especially who will replace him. Many have reservations about the Syrian National Council, which is more representative of the Islamists than the real fabric of Syria.Â
They are also concerned about the undue influence of Erdogan who has been spinning 1,000 and One Night tale to Obama by claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood is a “moderate” organization. The same MB governing Gaza and using violence to resolve its problems.Â
Personally, I would not bet on the Syrian National Council. It’s a Saudi-Qatari effort, dressed-up by Erdogan to look like a sheep in wolves clothing, to fill a vacuum.Â
Let them do their work and push for regime change. At the right time the Transitional Council will be a totally different animal governed by reasonable and wise individuals instead of opportunists and extremists.Â
At the end, the Saudis and the Qataris will flip like a pancake if they find themselves cornered because of their choice over who will rule Syria. As if Syria needs its leaders to be chosen by them!!Â
One last item. Do not discount Abdul Halim Khaddam at all. The man has a chance to pull it off to lead the Transitional Council if he plays it smart and works with the west more than he does with the Saudis. He is one of three Syrians the world will turn to when the SNC fails.