The war in Syria rests now in the hands of Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar on the other. It is a war of Sunni Arabs against Farsi Shia, which in Sunni-majority Syria makes it a war of attrition. The longer Assad stays in power, the closer he is to his defeat regardless of outside influence or assistance.
Neither Putin nor Obama have much to say in this foot soldier’s war. There are not enough Syrian pilots to man any new MIGs and not enough moderate rebels to add to the CIA training roster.
Assad faltering is not an option for Iran. This attitude on the part of the Mullahs trying to expand their sphere of influence to enslave the Arab masses is Iran’s biggest weakness. Rendering of its option basket is limited in scope and possibilities if Iran continues to refuse an outcome where Assad is removed from power.
Underway next week in Geneva is a U.N. peace conference sponsored by the U.N. envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura where Iran finds herself at the table alongside Syrian oppositionists and activists Iran believes it can work with. Like the butcher selects his meat to carve, Iran may be selecting, or has already selected, that individual it can rely upon to continue its policies in Syria. What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? The first order of the day is to find the Assad alternative. Just in case. Just to have Plan B in play.
The Mullahs keeping their Plan B a secret is a must. We won’t know until Assad packs his bags or hangs from a Ghouta tree.
Barring failure, Iran has several other plans as well. Let us go through some horrific scenarios only the Mullahs are capable of pulling.
What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? Just before Assad falls, Hezbollah fires Sarin gas missiles at Israel. In the hundreds. We must consider that possibility. Those extremists religious zealots think they are going to heaven no matter what. Where did Hezbollah get the Sarin? From Assad who saw Obama’s red line as a green line to expand its use.
Let us thank John Kerry, in this instance, for his historical agreement to remove chemical weapons from Assad’s hands without realizing they are now in the hands of Hezbollah.
When Jews begin dying in the hundreds and Israel responds against Hezbollah, who will care about Assad of Syria? The world forgets, and Israel becomes the epicenter of the conflict.
What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? Just before Assad falls, Iran would divulge it has built an atomic bomb it intends to defend the regime with. Or some other similar scenario where dangerous Iranian extortion schemes steal the show and freeze the outcome of the war. Maybe the bomb is in Damascus. Anything is possible with Iran if Hezbollah is at stake.
What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? Just before Assad falls, Iran fires a long-range missile armed with a North Korean atomic weapon and intended to detonate in Rubh al-Khali, a 1,000 km desert in southern Saudi Arabia. Only scorpions die and Saudi Arabia has a decision to make now. Might as well bet its best hand on Hezbollah.
What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? Just before Assad falls, Iran would sink old ships in the Strait of Hormuz to block all oil traffic (See depth map below). Oil prices go through the roof. Assad is saved when the world comes down hard on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. Will Obama go to war to stop Iran? What do you think? He will commit to the Keystone pipeline before he commits to striking Iran.
What will Iran do to protect Hezbollah? Anything really.
Let us be prepared.