I am asked often why the Syrian opposition is quiet these days. Is it dead?
The answer is simple. We operate with the tide or as some may call it the highs and lows of international pressure on Syria. With Obama in power, we are living in low tide and any activity beyond writing and preparing is counter-productive given our scant resources. It is too early for Obama to fully grasp what effect his policies are having on the region, which has seen Iran and Syria get stronger, not weaker under his tenure or those of the US State Department personnel who call for diplomatic resolutions when all Assad understands is brute force.
The US produced Jimmy Carter in 1976 who almost destroyed the US economy and whose policies ushered the Mullahs we face today. As a result, Reagan rose like a phoenix to save the US and destroy its enemies. I recall Reagan hitting Muamar Qaddafi in 1986 because Qaddafi supported terror against the US. Qaddafi never recovered from seeing himself bombed in his own palace and chased like a rat. Ever since, he only sleeps in tents because they all look alike from the top.
So we await 2012 when a new American president wins the elections and whose agenda is the projection of American power and whose cohones do not shrink every time he faces a crisis. Until then, any dynamic activity on our behalf is a waste of time.
Our prediction is that next time will be the end of Assad. Who would trust him with living-up to any expectations such as peeling from Iran or continue working to build an atomic bomb? Next time, the whole world would be prepared and the plan is already in the drawer. The Syrian opposition already has advanced knowledge that those who opposed Assad’s demise in 2004 will be more welcoming of it next time around. His list of enemies keeps growing.
Meanwhile, this is the time for reflection and learning.