Putin and Assad want you to think the war is going their way. Except numbers speak louder than propaganda. According to activists on the ground, yesterday’s kill ratio between regime forces plus IS and rebel forces is 63 to 28.
In other words, for every rebel that dies, more than two Assad forces and IS died in return (We consider the Assad forces, IS, and Jabhat al-Nusra one and the same. All are evil terrorists in support of a terrorist ideology).
Here is the breakdown:
7 rebels were killed in clashes against IS fighters in the northern countryside of Aleppo, most likely Kurdish.
14 anti-Assad rebels of unknown origins were killed by clashes against regime forces, bombardment, and targeting their checkpoints.
7 non-Syrian fighters who fought for Jund al-Sham were killed by either clashes or direct aerial bombardment targeting.
One IS fighter detonated himself on a suicide mission against a checkpoint around the Kweiris Airport in Aleppo, which recently was re-captured by the Assad forces.
22 National Defense Forces militiamen (We also call them Shabeeha) were killed around Syria after being attacked at checkpoints they mounted to protect perimeter Alawite strongholds.
21 Assad army forces were killed through direct clashes, sniper bullets, IEDs, and attacks against their checkpoints and vehicles.
11 IS fighters were killed by either direct clashes or direct aerial targeting.
3 non-Syrian militant fighters allied with the regime forces killed by clashes against rebels. They could be either Hezbollah or IRGC fighters.
5 men were executed by IS for spying for Assad. Germany better beware that Assad intelligence against IS may just be a smoke screen. IS has become very efficient at weeding out the spies in its midst.
Even with Russia’s heaviest arsenal, the kill ratio still favors anti-Assad, anti-IS forces. IS can still recruit efficiently but Assad lately has suffered a set-back when Iran decided to pull back its forces from Syria.
With more rebel boots on the ground surviving, which yesterday’s kill ratio demonstrated, we do not see how Assad can win in the long-term unless Russia begins sending thousands of its troops to fight directly for Assad.