[singlepic id=2 w=320 h=240 float=] The geography, ethnicity, and politics of the region offer a multitude of opportunities to go on the offensive with the help of so many oppressed minorities.
It is truly offensive to watch Middle East leaders, supposedly learned enough to know how backward their countries are, plan and execute a propaganda war whose purpose is to empower the very same people why the Middle East swims in ignorance today. Who would have thought that Teyyep Erdogan would commit the ultimate sin by acting more like the thugs we find in Damascus and Tehran than the statesman every one expect him to be as the prime minister of great Turkey? The worst part is that, unlike Assad and Ahmadinajead, he has the ears of the White House.
Yesterday’s axis of Syria and Iran has expanded today to include Turkey and Qatar. None of the diplomatic venues that concentrated on peeling Syria from Iran yielded any results. The time wasted was precious. Time Syria and Iran exploited to expand their influence to include an Islamist prime minister in Turkey and an incidental Emir in Qatar. Time during which Syria kept its conveyor belt of missiles working overtime to benefit Hezbollah in spite of repeated requests by a friendlier US administration. Time that allowed Iran to continue racing towards nuclear independence it can threaten everyone with.
Just briefly look at the region today. We have the US retreating and Russia re-engaging. We have the “resistance” bloc expanding their terror networks into democratic Lebanon through Hezbollah, continuing their support of the old Ba’athists and al-Qaeda in Iraq, and imposing a siege on democratic Israel through Hamas and Hezbollah. We have a rainbow of extremists be it religious or secular, ethnic minorities or majorities, circling the region for a new era of oppression and lack of freedoms. But the worst in all of this is observing the world either ignoring all together the problem of Islamic extremism or defending them under one veiled excuse or another. The gene pool that controlled politics in the late 30’s in Europe is back in vogue and with it, unfortunately, the possibility of wars to realign civilizations.
There are many reasons why we find ourselves at this perilous juncture. But none is more important than the US blinking in the face of terror against Iraq by NOT confronting militarily its adversaries when the evidence was mounting against Syria and Iran they were behind the terror campaign directed at the US troops and the Iraqi civilians. International law would have been on the US side. That was a turning point that brought us to this moment in the region’s history.
Today, it is hard to rely on this US administration to create a new balance by throwing down the gauntlet. For a myriad of reasons, be it economic or social, the US is unwilling to confront anyone except with diplo-language. In ’05 and ’06, the US surrendered the only opportunity it had to re-establish real order in the region by not taming Assad and the Mullahs when it had the opportunity and its forces were funded and ready.
So the only player is Israel; and to some extent some of the militarily weaker Arab states fearing a resurgent Iran. But it is too much of a burden for Israel to carry on its shoulders that responsibility given its history of wars and grief. For Israelis, every Gilad in Israel is as precious as every Rachel or Yitzhak.
However, if one looks at the geography and history of the “resistance” bloc, their Achilles’ Heel is staring us in the face. It is the Kurd problem and the Kurdish aspiration for a country they call Kurdistan not too dissimilar from the Jewish aspirations for Israel of the late 19th century. Add to that a contentious history partially built on struggle and violence between the Kurds and the “resistance” bloc and you have The Kurdish Cause equaling and maybe surpassing the Palestinian Cause in importance and priority (i.e. The Kurds are oppressed by 3 different countries and their number exceed 30 million Kurds).
Assad is fully aware of the Kurdish dilemma. His security apparatus has been waging a silent campaign of terror against Kurdish dissidents, Kurdish conscripts, and now, according to Fouad Aleko of the Kurdish Yekiti Party, the Kurdish leadership in Europe and elsewhere. Any uprising by the Kurds will be met with deadly force, something Assad will not hesitate to resort to given the family’s history against the Syrian people. But the Kurds, if supported unconditionally, will defend themselves.
We hope there will never be any violence anywhere; but any form of violent uprising inside Syria will force Assad to re-direct his energies and more importantly will create a siege mentality as all the Kurds in Iran, Turkey, and especially free Iraq will rally behind their brothers in Syria. Unlike the flotilla from hell, Assad attacking the Kurds will not be labeled as self-defense but rather will be classified as terror against one’s own people. Hamas has been branded the victim for too long in today’s mess when other victims, like the Kurds, and the Syrian people have been suffering since Assad came to power in 1970. Time to divert the attention away from Hamas and towards Assad and Ahmadinajead.