Why Qatar Will Fall

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So far, all the Arab countries to experience a change of leadership share one thing in common: They are all North African nations. Of the three countries, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria, whose population rose in defense of freedom and democracy, none of the rulers has experienced any regime change yet.

In the case of Yemen, a hardcore beehive of al-Qaeda-type Islamists, Saudi Arabia was able to suck the oxygen out of the uprising by cutting-off any aid to the Yemeni opposition and by ignoring their pleas. No doubt, this played in the best interest of Yemenis until such a point al-Qaeda is eradicated and true believers in democratic rule become a visible and a trustworthy force.

I do not know much about Yemen but it would not surprise me if Ali Saleh, the current corrupt ruler, encouraged al-Qaeda’s maneuverability inside the country to justify his services. 

In the case of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia dispatched its forces to the small island to crush a similar uprising by the oppressed Shia. Not one powerful voice was raised in the west to object to this action because it would have encouraged the Iranian regime of Khameini to become more aggressive. 

In the case of Syria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar conspired to cripple the Syrian uprising by contriving against the Syrian people (Mind you al-Jazeera was all for freedom up until one month ago when it flipped 180 degrees against the Syrian people). Whether their plan would work or not is beside the point. Their action is aimed at keeping a violent and a psychopath in power just to protect their rule.

But then one asks the following questions. 

  • Why the Emir of Qatar decided suddenly to hold parliamentary election in 2013?
  • Why the Emir of Qatar joined Saudi Arabia in suppressing Syrian freedom when Qatar had sided with the Syrian people during much of its coverage of the rebellion in Syria? 
  • Since when Qatar joins Saudi Arabia in anything?
  • Why the Emir of Qatar speaks of freedom for other countries, like Libya, but al-Jazeera is quiet about the Qatari potent opposition represented by their cousins who supported the deposed father of the present Emir of Qatar? 
  • Why a coup was mounted unsuccessfully against the Emir of Qatar in February of 2011?
  • When is the next coup and how will it materializes?

Add the following magnets working against the present ruler and one can see Qatar fall sooner than later.

  • Even though Qatar has the highest per capita income in the world hovering around $70k per person, the real wealth of the country remains in the hands of two people (The ruler and his foreign minister). This kind of policy is a magnet for internal coups.
  • Al-Jazeera’s potential power to influence the Arab street is also a magnet to absorb Qatar into Saudi Arabia. Such plans are only accomplished if Saudi Arabia supports a coup and installs a puppy government.

Qatar is punching way above its weight; but in doing so, this small and very wealthy patch of land is attracting unholy suitors the Emir wishes not to bed with.

Eventually though, to survive, this weak nation will have to submit to either internal pressure or to outside greed.

Everyone else will turn a blind eye as long as spending continues and al-Udeid US Air Base remains operational.


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