After the veto by Russia and China at the UN challenging a Resolution against the Assad regime, President Sarkozy announced that France will bolster the Syrian opposition in consultation with the Arab League.
If Quai D’Orsay assists in retooling, reshaping, and expanding the Syrian opposition to alleviate the fears many of the minorities see inherently wrong with the SNC, which was formed in the bosoms of a Muslim Brotherhood champion and acrobatic oil Sheiks, then we have a chance of stripping Assad of his most valuable Asset: The minorities of Syria standing by him.
While speaking to the Alawite and the Christian communities in Los Angeles and Europe, I learned that the minorities are not deserting the Assad regime for two reasons: 1) They don’t see a savior in the SNC but rather a train wreck. To replace the outwardly violent but internally protective dictatorship of Assad with an outwardly peaceful but internally dangerous alternative is not an option when it comes to their security and survival and, 2) Who will provide for that security and protect their interests after Assad? They simply do not see that moderate Muslim, within the SNC, strong enough to confront, today and publicly, their nemesis in the form of Islamic extremism or the application of Sharia’a. If that person rises, they will vote for him en masse to help him ascend to power.
During this sensitive period, it does not help to see the GCC countries attempt to wrap their arms around the FSA when their proxy, the SNC, failed in the same mission. Those defectors and civilians-turned-fighters who control the Syrian street are only reacting to violence with violence and any attempt at muzzling their rights to defend themselves will be met with the same contempt and even more violence.
Get the Arab countries out of the equation because the more they interfere, the less likely the minorities will desert Assad. Syria’s minorities are resentful of their interference and fearful of their pro-Islamist influence in their own backyard. They see what happened in Egypt and they are recoiling.
If the French are able to alleviate these fears with determination and certainly without any interference or advice from PM Erdogan or the GCC countries, then Syria may avert a civil war. The minorities of Syria control Syria’s destiny today if you want a peaceful resolution and the FSA control Syria’s future if you want a violent end.