Syria: The Center of the Arab Spring or the Center of a Cold War?

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[singlepic id=185 w=320 h=240 float=left]What happens when two people are arguing but no one is listening what the other is saying? You get conflicting messages.

What happens when three people are arguing but no one is listening what each is saying? You get chaos. 

In the case of Syria, it’s a mob screaming over each other, which is causing mayhem.

The west wants to see freedom, democracy, and human rights replace Assad. It strangely supports an opposition, named the Syrian National Council whose goals are to to replace Assad with another extremist dictatorship. Assad wants to retain power by whatever violent means. The Arab League wants Assad to share power with the Syrian National Council to protect the interests of the families that own it. The Russians are defending Assad to protect their assets but calling for a dialogue as a ploy. The people of Syria and the real Syrian opposition want NATO to help depose Assad to earn their freedom and control of their destiny.

The Israelis? I believe they are playing it safe by waiting for 2012 when the American people, who support Israel percentage-wise more than they support the President and the US Congress combined, vote in the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, some want to solve the Syrian impasse before Mr. Obama gets busy with his future and some, like the Russians, want it to fester exactly for that purpose.

This mêlée of conflicting goals and interests is causing the Syrian civil war even though many wish it to end. Who holds the real cards today are the Free Syrian and the Salah Eddine al-Ayoubi Armies fighting in the streets.

Both armies have been blocked from getting any arms so far but given the anger of the Syrian people, funding from the Sunnis of the Gulf, and the continued defections from the regular Syrian army, every side is jostling to wrap their arms around the defectors or to contain their potential to dilute their influence.

The Syrian scenario looks more and more like a multi-player musical chair played with two three-legged baby stools represented by the two armies of defectors and deserters.

Syria started out as an effort by the Syrians to roll the Arab Spring carpet but it looks more and more like a ratatouille for survival and self-interests that remind us of the Cold War; the Arab League is just adding salt and pepper to this stew from hell.


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