One reason Assad will lose the war is due to a crumbling Syrian Lira.
One reason Assad will lose the war is due to the fact that all salaries the Assad forces are paid with come in local currency. Many have not been able to sustain their families on their measly income when imports of goods are paid for with foreign currencies.
This has led many of Assad’s soldiers to defect to the other side where the rebels are paid in U.S. Dollars courtesy of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
The New York Times, in an article entitled “An Eroding Syrian Army Points to Strain“, described the Hezbollah-Syrian army rift:
“Then there is simple jealousy. Hezbollah fighters are paid in dollars, while Syrian soldiers get depreciating Syrian pounds. Hezbollah fighters get new black cars and meat with rice, Ali said, while Syrian soldiers make do with dented Russian trucks and stale bread.”
To a Sunni fighting for Assad, this preferential treatment smacks of sectarianism. No wonder defections to the rebels keep mounting.
One reason Assad will lose this war is because of the crumbling Syrian Lira now worth almost 2.5 times less than 3 months ago.
Is he printing too many Syrian Liras while at the same time pilfering the foreign currency he gets from Iran? This inflationary decline in the Syrian Lira value indicates he may be.
AP contributed to this article.