The unrest in both Iraq and Lebanon demonstrate that Iranian militant proxies fail to govern the people of both. The model withers in peaceful times and shows clear signs of incompetency to rule.
In an expose, the Associated Press writes:
The day after anti-government protests erupted in Iraq, Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani flew into Baghdad late at night and took a helicopter to the heavily fortified Green Zone, where he surprised a group of top security officials by chairing a meeting in place of the prime minister.
The arrival of Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and the architect of its regional security apparatus, signaled Tehran’s concern over the protests, which had erupted across the capital and in Iraq’s Shiite heartland, and included calls for Iran to stop meddling in the country.
The protests in Iraq and Lebanon are fueled by local grievances and mainly directed at political elites, but they also pose a challenge to Iran, which closely backs both governments as well as powerful armed groups in each country. An increasingly violent crackdown in Iraq and an attack by Hezbollah supporters on the main protest camp in Beirut have raised fears of a backlash by Iran and its allies.
ABSENT AMERICAN LEADERSHIP
Because it is apparent that the militant violent Iranian proxies in both Lebanon and Iraq are unable to govern, fears of resorting to violence against the people Iran claims they support its invasions and occupations is real. Iran will not hesitate to kill innocent Arab civilians to implement its violent Farsi ambitions in Mesopotamia and The Levant.
Absent American leadership, the Iranian iron fist is a death sentence to tens of millions of Arabs. The same is true in Yemen if the Houthis ever become governors of their dilapidated and broken country.
What Iran fears the most, besides losing control of both countries, is the rise of Iranians against the Khamenei regime. With all its newly acquired powers stretching from Tehran to Beirut, Iran cannot simultaneously fight domestic unrest while it continues to conquer more land and more people. It poses a clear danger to the very existence of the regime.
For those who voted for Donald Trump in the hope he can fix Barack Obama’s policies of turning his back on the Middle East, it is a nightmarish scenario if Iran gets away violating the rights of Lebanese and Iraqis. They have no protection from an Iranian open season of death and destruction.
Throughout modern history, violent militancy has systematically failed to govern when given the chance. In Cuba, in Venezuela, in Syria (1963 brought the failed Ba’ath Party to power), in Angola, in Lebanon (post civil war of 1975 empowering Hezbollah), in Iran (post Iranian Revolution against the Shah), the Taliban in Afghanistan, Hamas in Gaza, in Bosnia, in Chechnya, in Yemen, and in Nigeria (Boko Haram uprising).
If any violent organization boasts a use-force-to-govern DNA, good governance will elude it. Hezbollah failures are not hard to recognize with a Lebanese economy on the brink of collapse. Soon, Lebanon might just be another Venezuela. The same is true of any violent organization trying to adapt to governing in peaceful times.
How will Iran adapt is anybody’s guess. Denial seems to be the first reaction when we see Soleimani chairing an Iraqi government meeting. More violence seems to be their next move to oppress millions of Arabs. The majority of whom refuse to be led by a foreign country run by religious zealots.
As far as Russia and china are concerned, both seek a bazaar to sell their wares. China needs cheap oil to produce them. If Iran can deliver that bazaar, both will stand down and be thankful.
In the meantime, impeaching Trump is now a national duty to serve our national security interests. As we said before, Trump ran to help Trump make more money. His motto for 2020 should really be: Trump for Trump.