The plot thickens in Syria. After a deluge of opinions claiming Assad won the war, a new battle front recently the United States opened against Syria demonstrates the volatility of Assad’s tenure. In fact, we believe Assad survival key to Iranian occupation of the country. If Assad goes, so will Iran.
The economic chokehold extends globally. Not even Egypt, home to a strong Orthodox Church presence, is able to skirt the U.S. sanctions. As far as the regime is concerned, the Suez Canal does not exist.
ASSAD IS A NATURAL MAGNET FOR POLITICAL DISASTERS
Once again, Assad brought this upon himself the way he brought the destruction of Syria upon his regime of terror. Stupidity runs deep in the offsprings of Hafez al-Assad. He taught his children how to use violence to remain in power, but he could not teach them political cunning. Like a speedy athlete, you are either born with it, or you are not.
The cardinal mistake Assad made was to align his fate with the Iranian Mullahs so openly and so gratuitously. Anyone watching from a balcony seat the Syrian civil war unfold will tell you that no distinction exists between IRGC fighters and the Syrian Army; or Hezbollah terrorists and Assad troops. They may carry different flags or wear different outfits, but their mission is one and the same.
Assad’s colossal mistake can be summarized in one sentence: He joined Iran in its campaign to terrorize Israel
ASSAD SURVIVAL KEY TO IRANIAN OCCUPATION
Such is not a coincidence. Assad intentionally pursued Iranian support, funds, and military assistance. He rewarded Iran by permitting the Mullahs to change the face of Syria forever. His colossal mistake can be summarized in one sentence: Assad joined Iran in its campaign to terrorize Israel believing he is free and clear from the American mighty shadow. In fact, the hard sanctions levied against Iran and Syria may show, for the first time, the long economic arm of the U.S. when it deploys it fully to serve its interests. Damascus is in a state of shock over this new economic war no soldier, or Mullah, or even Russia can save Assad from its penetrable bite.
As far as we are concerned, Assad survival is key to Iranian occupation of Syria. This tortuous Siamese relationship seems to have awakened the giant in a willing Trump Administration. With Assad gone, the message to a any new leadership and the people of Syria would be quite clear. Iran or power. Iran or food on your table.
DIMINISHING RUSSIAN ROLE
The message is as good for Putin too who is busy harvesting North Korea as a counter punch to American staying power despite his win in Syria. The new sanctions choking the Assad regime have demonstrated Putin’s limitations in controlling his newly acquired powers in the region. He is helplessly looking at Assad melt away. However, the Russian leader has a play up his sleeves when it comes to North Korea. We will soon find out if it also reaches to save Assad as well.
Russia assured Israel on many occasions it could pick up where America left should the United States non interventionist mood drive it from the region. Israel, for her part, is unwilling to put too many eggs in Russia’s basket. The country does not trust Vladimir Putin who resisted little Iranian presence in Syria. Instead, Israel weighed heavily on the new sanctions we see before us as a counterweight to a dumb Assad in pursuit of destroying whatever is left of Syria. Lobbying for the sanctions, we believe, are Israeli answers to all those who assure her of their passionate commitment to her safety. Be it a foe or a friend.
Remains to be seen is what endgame the west is willing to authorize in return for the forceful dislodging of Iran. In the past, the west, seeing the rise of Islamists, backed off any plans for regime change in Syria.
But now that ISIS is mostly underground following AQ’s fate, would the west see more benefits to Assad ousting than to his submission? We hope so. Time to turn a new page in Syria.
Where Syria goes, Arabs would go. This is the part that very westerners understand about MENA. The Gulf countries are western banks where the west deposits for oil and retrieves for weapons. Egypt is the Arab premier cultural center. Lebanon is the center of Arab intellectualism. But Syria is the Arab world political center.