Have you heard of the lottery winner who after winning the jackpot wins again by gambling a big hand? But then, he believes his luck is endless and loses everything on the next bet?

Have you heard of a young installed ophthalmologist as president of a country who gambles big and wins in Iraq? But then, he believes his luck is endless and loses everything on the next bet?

Today, Hezbollah finds itself in the jaws of an international investigation into who killed Rafik Hariri and indictments to soon follow. The same tribunal investigating the murder is expected to exonerate Assad or any member of his family but may possibly indict “rogue” Syrian elements. For those who don’t know Syria, a “rogue” Syrian element is as rare as ice cream inside an active volcano.

Hezbollah has been smelling a rat for sometime now. According to WikiLeaks, Hezbollah believes Assad killed Mughnieyeh. These sentiments have been under wrap until now.

On January 16, Hezbollah’s rat was made public when it aired on its New TV a tape in which Hariri’s son Saad Hariri is heard accusing Syria and Assad himself of murder. It is possible that Hezbollah believes Assad has exonerated himself of the murder by delivering Mughnieyeh, amongst other things, to the international community in return for a safe passage.

This also means that Iran will no longer sit on the fence if a dispute erupts between Hezbollah and Assad. And since Hezbollah is an Iranian-made killer organization, the story will have more ramifications for Syria and Syrians.

With 10,000 IRGC operatives in Syria, Assad may discover soon that this bet is far costlier than the one he made on Iraq with Iranian help. This explains the new rapprochement between Hezbollah and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Assad’s arch-enemies, initiated by Hezbollah. It may also explain why four car bombs exploded in Aleppo a week ago.

If Iran reacts to Hezbollah’s indictments, more than likely it will punish Assad for giving Hezbollah up even though he ordered the murders. Assad, for once, may want to be indicted by the International Tribunal just enough to save his skin and not lose power.

Jammed between four extremist groups, Assad thought he could manipulate them all to his advantage. But all four are enraged now. Regardless, because no Syrian, or Iraqi, or Lebanese, or Jordanian, or Israeli will shed tears for Assad, an Iranian coup with Hezbollah’s help in addition to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood will certainly be successful. No regime whose secrets are known to other friendly regimes can last if the friendly regimes turn against it.

Ever since it was discovered that Assad has said to an American delegation that Hamas is an “unwelcome partner”, it would not take a genius to figure that Hamas will turn on Assad sooner or later. Now it has the partners to do so. With this coming indictment and Assad’s exoneration, Iran and Hezbollah may join their party. Erdogan will just look the other way.

Was Iraq a beginner’s luck for Assad? Or was it because Iran helped him? You be the judge.

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