With 16 agreements of cooperation signed between Lebanon and Iran in the wake of Ahmadinajead’s trip to the country, Lebanon has, in matters of hours, changed hands from the Wahabbis of Saudi Arabia to the Mullahs of Iran.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia signed Lebanon over when he visited Damascus in July of this year and then visited Lebanon, with Assad, to finalize the transfer. Why did Abdullah give-up on Lebanon? In return for secure Iraqi borders threatening the rise of the Shia in the eastern province. The big surprise is yet to come when Abdullah discovers that even Assad’s mother does not trust him.
What is so sad about all of this? Lebanon, one of the few democracies in the region, keeps changing hands. The Palestinians owned it in the early seventies, then Assad owned it in the mid-seventies, then the Israelis shared it with Syria in the early eighties because Assad did not complete his mission of destroying the Palestinians, then the Saudi owned it when Hariri came to power (The Syrians killed him when he tried to complete the ownership), and now the Iranians own it alongside Syria. Everyone except the Lebanese themselves. Any Lebanese President or Prime Minister who wishes Lebanon to be free will find himself dead.
Incidentally, the agreements cover some of the most sensitive areas of control such as high education, media, communications, etc.. This Iranian occupation will last quite a bit. Maybe the IDF should rethink its policy by dismantling Assad, something we pushed for in 2005 by asking the international community to help us dislodge him. But then, maybe it’s too late. Assad is slowly encircling Israel with missiles and angry people.
As it stands now, the Middle East is divided into North and South. North is almost fully controlled by the Shia and the South fully controlled by the Sunni. Further consolidation along these lines will increase the chances of a 1,400 year old score-settling war to be the mother of all wars and to last as long as oil is recoverable. That’s my prediction if Obama continues on his quest to abandon Iraq. Already, the Gulf countries are spending tens of billions of dollars on security and weapons. The question becomes: Who will arm Iran and Syria?
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